What actually is CAB, Citizenship Amendment Bill?
The Citizenship Amendment Bill 2019, seeks to give citizenship rights to non-muslim refugees from Pakistan, Afghanistan and Bangladesh. The Bill seeks to amend the definition of illegal immigrants for Hindu, Sikh, Parsi, Buddhist and Christian immigrants from these three countries who have lived in India without documentation.
The Bill has already been passed in Lower house of Parliament, though a lot of hue and cry was made by the opposition parties and social activists over its passage. If the bill is successfully passed in the Rajya Sabha, it will fast track the citizenship process as the duration will be reduced from 11 years to just six years.
Debates over the introduction of this Bill are making rounds on social media as few say it is against the interest of the minority Muslim community. However, Bhartiya Janta Party is firm on its stand as it maintains that its part of the party manifesto.
Does BJP have the required numbers for the successful passage of CAB in the Upper House?
Based on the stand taken by various parties in Lok Sabha, it appears that the ruling party will have a narrow lead in Rajya Sabha. The parties which are likely to support BJP and their respective strength in the upper house goes like this: BJP (83), AIADMK (11), JD-U (6), SAD (3), AGP (1), BPF (1), LJP (1), PMK (1), RPI (1), Nominated (3), Independents (4).
The sum totals to 115, which suggests BJP will secure the support of these political parties in the Rajya Sabha.
With 5 seats lying vacant, the strength of the house is 240 and thus the halfway mark is 120.
Parties opposing the Bill :
UPA: Congress (46), DMK (5), IUML (1), Kerala Congress (1), NCP (4), RJD (4), MDMK (1), Nominated (1). Total: 63
Non-UPA parties opposing the Bill: TMC (13), SP (9), TRS (6), CPM (5), CPI (1), BSP (4), AAP (3), PDP (2). Total: 43
Thus, parties opposing the Bill have 106 MPs in the Rajya Sabha. Besides, two Independent MPs — MP Veerendra Kumar and Ritabrata Banerjee — are also more likely to go against the Bill. This takes the number of those opposing the Bill to 108, which is 12 less than the halfway mark.
source: https://www.molitics.in/article/615/Why-is-there-an-uproar-over-Citizenship-Amendment-Bill
